In the Venezuelan case, the deeper effect will be in the real economy, as a result of the fall of the oil prices. In the opinion of the expert, in 2009 the Venezuelan economy does not collapse, but finances will not be handled with the same criteria for the past four years. It is estimated that the Government, as it has announced, will be more selective with public spending e, could even see the need to devalue. A devaluation that we believe can give in the coming year and that will certainly cause serious problems, especially for producers. Although consumers will not escape them. Insists Oliveros to point out, that in times of crisis like this, the costs which are usually trimmed are the of transfers to governorates, mayors and decentralized institutions and infrastructure. He ruled out a reduction in public spending. Impact gives us in his writing Cecilia Pena, faced with a scenario of devaluation, calculated by Onuva in Bs.F 2.90 per dollar, the Government may have more bolivars, to change their income in dollars, but also almost all the products infringing because one way or another everything that is consumed in the country depends on imports.

Worse still, the purchases on international markets could be reduced, according to Oliveros – it is very likely that the Foreign Exchange Administration Commission (Cadivi) reduce further its priorities of import and the bulk of employers need to attend the unofficial market. Since then, this will be reflected in a reduction in employment, an increase in the prices of goods and services and, therefore, a fall in the purchasing power of Venezuelans. Even, does not rule out a possible scenario shortages. What is it recommended in this regard? Oliveros recommends that citizens begin to rationalize expenses and use part of the profits or bonuses in the payment of debts, so that it is not so exposed the next year.